The Özil Myth is gathering force.
He’s a flop. He’s lazy, tired, and disinterested. Arsenal should have bought Higuan instead of Özil because the German midfielder needs Ronaldo to be good. We need to sell Özil now before his value tanks.
This is all B.S.
Numbers Never Lie
There are any number of footballing stats that disprove the Özil Myth:
· Özil has created 63 total chances, second only to Eden Hazard.
· These 63 chances represent 22.2% of Arsenal's chances this year. No other EPL player has created a higher percentage of his team's chances.
· His 8 assists trail only Wayne Rooney and Steven Gerrard.
· Özil boasts the top shot accuracy in the league at 84%.
· He has completed far more passes this season than any other Arsenal player.
While footballing stats are a critical gauge of any player's worth, they only tell part of the story. They ignore that gut feeling we all get when we watch football matches. This is where game-by-game player ratings come in. Since the beginning of the 2012/2013 season, GrafficArsenal has compiled player ratings from a number of sources including The Guardian's groupsourced ratings and Arseblog's tally. From the start of the 2013/14 season, we now rely solely on Arseblog ratings.
So, what do these ratings tell us about Özil's season so far?
A Tale of Two Players
The two charts below show the game-by-game ratings of two different Arsenal players. The top graph tracks a Gunner through the first 32 matches of the 2012/2013 season and the second is Özil's ratings over his first 32 Arsenal games. The red line shows how that player is trending over those matches. (I've rounded the ratings to the nearest whole number to make the charts easier to digest.)
He’s a flop. He’s lazy, tired, and disinterested. Arsenal should have bought Higuan instead of Özil because the German midfielder needs Ronaldo to be good. We need to sell Özil now before his value tanks.
This is all B.S.
Numbers Never Lie
There are any number of footballing stats that disprove the Özil Myth:
· Özil has created 63 total chances, second only to Eden Hazard.
· These 63 chances represent 22.2% of Arsenal's chances this year. No other EPL player has created a higher percentage of his team's chances.
· His 8 assists trail only Wayne Rooney and Steven Gerrard.
· Özil boasts the top shot accuracy in the league at 84%.
· He has completed far more passes this season than any other Arsenal player.
While footballing stats are a critical gauge of any player's worth, they only tell part of the story. They ignore that gut feeling we all get when we watch football matches. This is where game-by-game player ratings come in. Since the beginning of the 2012/2013 season, GrafficArsenal has compiled player ratings from a number of sources including The Guardian's groupsourced ratings and Arseblog's tally. From the start of the 2013/14 season, we now rely solely on Arseblog ratings.
So, what do these ratings tell us about Özil's season so far?
A Tale of Two Players
The two charts below show the game-by-game ratings of two different Arsenal players. The top graph tracks a Gunner through the first 32 matches of the 2012/2013 season and the second is Özil's ratings over his first 32 Arsenal games. The red line shows how that player is trending over those matches. (I've rounded the ratings to the nearest whole number to make the charts easier to digest.)
Outside of the clanker Özil played against Liverpool, it's hard to differentiate between the two charts. There are some ups and downs for each and the trend lines are nearly identical. If Özil is a flop, the player in the top chart must have been a flop too, right?
The top graph belongs to Santi Cazorla, widely proclaimed our "Player of the Year" last season. Like Özil he transferred from La Liga and for much of the early season served as our Number 10. Also like Özil, his stats were strong through 32 matches: 8 goals, 7 assists, and a pass accuracy of about 87%.
Yeah, their performances looked and felt the same, but while most say Santi was last season's star, some of the same folks say Özil is a bust. Huh?
Saint Santi Versus Awful Özil
There are two major differences between Cazorla and Özil that explain why the strikingly different perceptions surrounding their eerily similar performances. First, all of us tend to play amateur psychologist whenever we watch football. It's difficult to ignore that while Santo dances around the field like a pixie with a smile on his face, Özil often looks and moves like a long-lost character from The Addams Family.
Second, and more importantly, Özil cost Arsenal about £26.4 less than Cazorla. While the price paid for the two players cannot be ignored, blaming Özil for being worth more on the open market than Cazorla hardly makes sense. But for the sake of argument, let's assume it does make sense for a minute.
Money Well Spent
Remember last season when the purchase of Cazorla caused Alex Ferguson to declare Arsenal a title contender? No, neither do I, because it did not happen. But this year, Özil's prior manager refused to sell us Demba Ba because he believed Özil made us real threats for the trophy. The whole narrative of our club changed when the German came to the club and our new found belief propelled us to the top of the table for much of the season.
This "Özil Effect" can be quantified. Since the midfielder's greatest strength is lifting the performances of his teammates, we compared the Team Performance Rating (the average of the players' ratings in each game) from the first 32 matches last season to Özil's 32 Arsenal matches this year. The numbers are striking. Taking the apocalyptic match at Anfield out of the equation, the team averaged a 6.8 rating in the matches Özil has played this year versus just 6.2 in our first 32 matches last year. To put that improvement into perspective, we have not won a single match where the team has ranked 6.2 or lower, but have won six games in which we ranked 6.8 or lower.
Conclusion
It's simple, really. Last year at this time we sat 21 points off the top, out of the Champion's League spots, and 4 points behind Spurs. This year we're fighting for the crown, safely in the top four, and 9 ahead of our noisy neighbors. Yes, Özil can frustrate in some matches and we are right to expect more from him, especially as he adjusts to the league. But to believe that the addition of a world-class midfielder hasn't contributed to our rise strains credulity.
One day we'll look back and laugh at ourselves for compounding the Özil Myth.
Written by Dave Kennett
(@GrafficArsenal)
The top graph belongs to Santi Cazorla, widely proclaimed our "Player of the Year" last season. Like Özil he transferred from La Liga and for much of the early season served as our Number 10. Also like Özil, his stats were strong through 32 matches: 8 goals, 7 assists, and a pass accuracy of about 87%.
Yeah, their performances looked and felt the same, but while most say Santi was last season's star, some of the same folks say Özil is a bust. Huh?
Saint Santi Versus Awful Özil
There are two major differences between Cazorla and Özil that explain why the strikingly different perceptions surrounding their eerily similar performances. First, all of us tend to play amateur psychologist whenever we watch football. It's difficult to ignore that while Santo dances around the field like a pixie with a smile on his face, Özil often looks and moves like a long-lost character from The Addams Family.
Second, and more importantly, Özil cost Arsenal about £26.4 less than Cazorla. While the price paid for the two players cannot be ignored, blaming Özil for being worth more on the open market than Cazorla hardly makes sense. But for the sake of argument, let's assume it does make sense for a minute.
Money Well Spent
Remember last season when the purchase of Cazorla caused Alex Ferguson to declare Arsenal a title contender? No, neither do I, because it did not happen. But this year, Özil's prior manager refused to sell us Demba Ba because he believed Özil made us real threats for the trophy. The whole narrative of our club changed when the German came to the club and our new found belief propelled us to the top of the table for much of the season.
This "Özil Effect" can be quantified. Since the midfielder's greatest strength is lifting the performances of his teammates, we compared the Team Performance Rating (the average of the players' ratings in each game) from the first 32 matches last season to Özil's 32 Arsenal matches this year. The numbers are striking. Taking the apocalyptic match at Anfield out of the equation, the team averaged a 6.8 rating in the matches Özil has played this year versus just 6.2 in our first 32 matches last year. To put that improvement into perspective, we have not won a single match where the team has ranked 6.2 or lower, but have won six games in which we ranked 6.8 or lower.
Conclusion
It's simple, really. Last year at this time we sat 21 points off the top, out of the Champion's League spots, and 4 points behind Spurs. This year we're fighting for the crown, safely in the top four, and 9 ahead of our noisy neighbors. Yes, Özil can frustrate in some matches and we are right to expect more from him, especially as he adjusts to the league. But to believe that the addition of a world-class midfielder hasn't contributed to our rise strains credulity.
One day we'll look back and laugh at ourselves for compounding the Özil Myth.
Written by Dave Kennett
(@GrafficArsenal)